Preview: South Alabama Visits Appalachian State For Final Conference Road Game Of Season
Kickoff: Saturday November 13, 1:30pm
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium – Boone, NC
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
#5 Jersey (wearing 55 for an offensive lineman): Trey Simpson
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
South Alabama didn’t get the result they were hoping for at Troy last weekend.
It looked like the Jags had a good gameplan from the start. However losing your starting quarterback on the opening possession tends to throw a monkeywrench into your plans. Then having a pair of mistakes by the next man up leading to two easy scores definitely doesn’t help matters.
Quarterback Jake Bentley, on only his second pass attempt of the game, stepped into the throw on a play-action pass and was hit low, below the knee, causing his knee to flex laterally. He was in visible pain on the ground after the play. After being attended to by the trainers, he jogged off the field but could still be seen favoring his left knee.
Desmond Trotter finished off the opening drive with a four yard touchdown run. On the next offensive possession, with the Jags at their own 24 yard line, a botched hand off resulted in the a fumble that was recovered by Troy. That turnover led to a field goal.
With the Jags trailing 24-7 Trotter was pressured and threw the ball in an attempt to prevent a sack, however Troy intercepted it and took it 32 yards for a touchdown. While it was their last points of the game, it would be all Troy would need for the win.
Bentley has a partially torn MCL and at the very least will miss this weeks game at Appalachian State. What his status will be going forward is still very much unknown. Team doctors will be involved as to any likelihood that he could suit up again for any of the remaining games. The concern is some “looseness” with his ACL.
The Jaguars still need to get one more win to bowl eligible with just three games left. The next chance is Appalachian State on the road this weekend. So let’s get started with the breakdown.
Appalachian State
The Mountaineers (7-2, 4-1 SBC) went to Arkansas State and earned a 48-14 win over the Red Wolves.
Arkansas State scored twice in the second quarter to tie the game at 14-all. But it was all App State after that with 34-unanswered points to close out the game. Among those 34 unanswered were two interceptions returned for touchdowns by the defense.
App State’s two losses came to #22 Miami 24-23 on September 11 and on October 12 at Louisiana-Lafayette 41-13.
They rebounded from the Louisiana loss on a Tuesday to defeat #14 Coastal Carolina on a nationally televised Wednesday night game on October 20.
Boone, NC is always a difficult place to play. But with with a forecast of a high of 41 degrees and winds between 10 to 20 MPH it doesn’t make it any more welcoming.
The Mountaineers are in their second season under the direction of head football coach Shawn Clark. He was named the head coach after Eliah Drinkwitz left after one season to take the head coaching position at Missouri.
Eight days after taking the reigns, Clark led the Mountaineers to a 31-17 win over UAB in the 2019 New Orleans Bowl.
In his first season as a head coach the Mountaineers went 9-3 and 6-2 in Sun Belt Conference play. They finished 2nd in the east division with a 56-28 win over North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Offense
Here is the offense by the numbers.
They average 36.9 points, 200.8 yards rushing, 263.3 passing yards, and 464.1 total offensive yards per game. They average 24.4 first downs per game.
They are converting 44-of-116 (38%) of their 3rd down attempts. They are also converting 11-of-20 (55%) of their 4th down attempts.
Their red zone efficiency is very high. Of their 34 red zone trips they have scored 31 times (91%) and of those scores 21 of them have been touchdowns.
Their offensive line has only allowed 9 sacks on the season.
They have 14 turnovers on the season. Six interceptions and out of 14 total fumbles, they’ve failed to recover eight of them.
Quarterback Chase Brice is 172-of-264 for 2,261 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Corey Sutton and Malik Williams are the top two receivers with almost identical numbers. Sutton has 47 catches for 711 yards and 5 touchdowns with an average of 15.1 yards per reception. Williams has 45 catches for 678 yards and 5 touchdowns with an average of 15.1 yards per catch.
The receiving numbers drop off pretty substantially after those two. Thomas Hennigan is third on the team with 34 catches for 472 yards and two touchdowns. No other receiver has more than nine catches after him.
The rushing statistics are similarly dominated by two individuals. Nate Noel leads the way with 153 carries for 889 yards and three touchdowns. Camerun Peoples is next with 105 carries for 609 yards and 13 touchdowns (double checks the number…wow) in seven games. Both average 5.8 yards per carry.
Chase Brice is next in line with 43 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Followed by Anderson Castle with 24 carries for 120 yards and two touchdowns. No other ball carrier has over 59 yards rushing on the season after those four.
Defense
The App State defense is allowing an average of 23.3 points, 133.9 rushing yards, 226 passing yards, and 359.9 total yards per game.
Opponents are converting 46-of-129 (36%) 3rd down attempts and 4-of-10 (40%) of their 4th down attempts.
Opposing offenses have had 31 trips into the red zone, they have scored 25 times (81%), but only 16 of them have been touchdowns (52%).
They have an eye-opeing 66 tackles for loss and have sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times on the season. They’ve collected 17 turnovers on the season, forcing 13 interceptions and recovering 4 fumbles.
D’Marco Jackson leads the Mountaineer defense with a whopping 84 total stops, 42 of them solo, with 12 tackles for loss, five sacks, and seven quarterback hurries from his linebacker position.
The next closest defender is Nick Hampton with 48 total stops, 27 solo, with a team leading 12.5 tackles for loss and six sacks.
Steven Jones leads the team with six interceptions.
This is another case where the Jags offensve will have to be able to operate behind the down and distance schedule. The Mountaineers will get negative plays.
As with any game, South Alabama must protect the ball, but against a ball-hawking defense like App State they will be out to pick off Trotter if he makes an errant throw.
Special Teams
Chandler Staton is perfect on the season. He’s made all 38 extra point attempts and all 14 field goal attempts. His longest is a 48 yard attempt against Georgia State.
Xavier Subotsch has punted 29 times on the season with an average of 39.6 yards per kick, 17 of them have been downed inside the 20 yard line and one went 51 yards, the only one to go over 50 yards for him this season. While his average yards isn’t high, he’s hasn’t needed to be. He’s been very effective with over half of his punts being downed inside the 20 yard line.
South Alabama
The loss of Bentley came as he was playing some of his best football. The offense struggled when Trotter took over but eventually started to find their rhythm and had a chance at a tying drive late in the game.
With a week of practice, Trotter should be well prepared to take back over the role he had previously. Trotter completed 64.5% of his passes last season for 1,917 yards and 11 touchdowns.
There are things that Bentley does that elevated himself over Trotter and earned the starting position. However there are things that Trotter does better than Bentley. One of the major things is his legs. He can run and he can extend plays.
We saw him use his legs on the first snap he took in place of Bentley.
Troy took away the deep threat of Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Wayne. Trotter and company found success underneath with one of his favorite targets being Lincoln Sefcik.
In the second half offensive coordinator Major Applewhite and Trotter pieced together a 19 play, 76 yard drive for a touchdown that drained 9:52 off the clock.
Offense
Let’s get the stats out of the way.
On average the Jags are scoring 28.6 points per game. They are rushing for an average of 135 yards, throwing for an average of 252.9 yards, and putting up an average of 387.9 total yards per game.
They are converting 47-of-131 (36%) of their 3rd down attempts and 19-of-28 (68%) of their 4th down attempts.
Their red zone trips have resulted in points on 33-of-39 (85%) times, with 28 of them being touchdowns.
Jaguar quarterbacks have been sacked 19 times on the season.
With the interception and fumble against Troy the offense has now had 15 turnovers, six have been interceptions along with nine lost fumbles out of 12 total fumbles.
Jake Bentley currently stands at 184-of-262 passing which is a 70.2% completion rate for 2,122 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Trotter is 21-of-34 (61.8%) for 154 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Jalen Tolbert has caught 58 passes for 1,032 yards and six touchdowns, for back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons for the Jags.
Jalen Wayne has 37 catches for 414 yards and two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 34 catches for 269 yards and Lincoln Sefcik has 26 catches for 201 yards and three touchdowns. Avery is the last player with double-digit catches with 17 for 92 yards and three touchdowns.
Terrion Avery has hit triple digit carries on the season now with 118 for 474 yards with one touchdown. Bryan Hill has 67 carries for 297 and three touchdowns. Kareem Walker, who didn’t see any playing time last week, has 63 carries for 237 yards and four touchdowns.
Defense
The defense played quite a good game outside of a pair of touchdown drives late in the first quarter and early second. The other two touchdown came on a very short field after a fumbled handoff attempt and a pick-six.
On to the numbers.
The defense is allowing an average of 22.1 points per game, 117.2 rushing yards, 202.1 passing yards, and 319.3 total offensive yards per game.
Opponents are converting 39-of-125 (31%) of their third down attempts and 9-of-16 (56%) of their 4th down attempts. Opponents have scored on 20-of-30 (67%) of their red zone trips, out of those 20 scores only 14 have been touchdowns.
The Jags defense have taken the ball away from opponents 18 times, 12 have been by interception and six have been fumbles. They’ve also sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times on the season.
Quentin Wilfawn leads the defense with 45 total stops, 18 solo with 1 sack and 2.5 tackles for loss. Trey Young is not far behind with 41 total stops, 24 solo, with 1.5 tackels for loss and tied for the team lead with three interceptions.
Charles Coleman III and CJ Rias are tied for the team’s sack lead with three each. Christian Bell is next in line with 2.5 sacks. Then Wy’Kevious Thomas, Chris Henderson, Shawn Jennings, and Jamall Hickbottom all have two sacks each.
Jamal Brooks leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss. Wy’Kevious Thomas right behind him with five tackles for loss.
Darrell Luter is tied with Young with three interceptions.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo made all four extra points and his only field goal attempt against the Trojans. He is now 29-of-31 on extra points and 10-of-14 on field goals, with a long of 48.
Jack Brooks has punted 38 times with an average of 42.5 yards per attempt with 11 downed inside the 20 and nine have traveled over 50 yards.
Keys to the Game
Establishing the Run
The coaches will probably ease Trotter into the game. Look for them to probably lean on the run quite a bit and use short, high percentage throws to make sure he is comfortable and get him going, especially against a ball-hawking secondary like the Mountaineers field.
With Trotters dual threat ability you’ll likely see more zone read looks than what they call with Bentley. If that is successful then that could open up Wayne and Tolbert for some big plays down field.
Stopping the Run
App State thrives on running the ball. The Jags defense loves to shut down the run.
Who wins that battle could determine the game.
App State runs the ball to open up the pass. When they can open up the pass they are a very hard team to beat.
The Elements
Weather forecasts are calling for a cold and breezy game in Boone. It may not snow but it may feel like it should when they are playing.
The training staff will have to ensure that all the players warm up properly in pre-game and stay warm throughout the game.
Cold weather tends to make skin and extremity injuries more painful due to the cold’s effect on the sensory nerves. Players also tend to be an increased risk of muscle strains and tears, usually to the hamstring, quadriceps and calf muscles. But with winds over 5 mph and temperatures around 40 or below you can experience hypothermia or cold-induced asthma.
Special teams players are usually at a heightened risk as they only play intermittently and are expected to go “all out” without significant warm up time.
Skill players also need to keep their hands warm or risk fumbles or dropped balls as well.
Prediction
It’s not like the Jaguars are having to prep and start a quarterback who’s never started before. Trotter has 14 starts in his career at South Alabama.
But the Jags will also be getting some players back from injury. James Jackson looks to be ready to suit up, but it’s not a certainty he will start or play. If an injury happens to occur, Trey Simpson could move back over to guard and Jackson could potentially play at center. Wilfawn and CJ Rias may both be able to play as well. Having any or all of these will help tremendously.
Will it be enough?
The Jags are a 21.5 point underdog on the road against the Mountaineers. With that number I’ll definitely take the Jags and the points.
Can the Jags win outright?
They’ve responded to losses like Texas State and ULM with some big wins. They need at least one more this season to get bowl eligible.
It won’t be easy on the road. Boone is a tough place to enter and leave with a win and the elements may not be the most favorable. But I think the Jags can do just that. It’ll be a bit of a statement win on the road against a conference foe.
Go Jags!
Preview: Battle For The Belt Edition, Jags Look To Bring The Belt Back From Troy
Kickoff: Saturday November 6, 2:30pm
Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Darrell Luter
It’s Battle for the Belt Week.
South Alabama (5-3, 2-3 SBC) came out of the locker room ready to play from the opening whistle. They scored touchdowns on each of their first four possessions in route to a 31-13 win over Arkansas State (1-7, 0-4 SBC).
The only touchdown allowed came on the ensuing kickoff after the Jags fourth touchdown of the first half.
Jalen Tolbert scored the first two touchdowns for his 9th career touchdown against the Red Wolves.
Terrion Avery is only the second Jaguar to rush for over 100 yards in a game this season. The last was Kareem Walker against Alcorn State back in week 3 of the season.
Second half adjustments by Arkansas State really stymied the Jaguars offense in the second half. They had negative yardage in the third quarter. While the offensive adjustments by the Red Wolves helped them to have more production in the second half, the Jaguar defense kept them out of the end zone and forced four turnovers.
Now the Jags are just one win away from bowl eligibility.
But they also being the much talked about three-game road swing. It all begins on the road in Troy, AL.
Troy
The Trojans are 4-4 overall, 2-2 in Sun Belt play and the largest margin of defeat was 13 points to the ULM. Both of their conference wins have been by 3 points (27-24 over Georgia Southern in Troy, 31-28 over Texas State in San Marcos). Both conference wins came by late game heroics.
The two conference losses have come at the hands of ULM (29-16) and Coastal Carolina (35-28).
Their two non-conference wins were over Southern (55-3) and Southern Miss (21-9). Their losses were to Liberty (21-13) and South Carolina (23-14).
Offense
Here are the Trojans by the numbers. They are averaging 27.4 points, 138.3 rushing yards, 243.7 passing yards and 382 total offensive yards per game.
They are 41-of-99 (41.4%) on third down situations. They are 6-of-11 (54.6%) on fourth down situations.
In the red zone they have scored 19-of-25 trips, with 15 of them being touchdowns.
The offense has fumbled the ball 8 times and lost possession 6 times. Quarterbacks have thrown 4 interceptions on the season.
Kimani Vidal leads the running back corps with 105 attempts for 553 yards and 5 touchdowns. BJ Smith has 248 yards on 54 attempts with 2 touchdowns. Jamontez Woods has 222 yards on 40 carries with 4 touchdowns.
Taylor Powell, a transfer from Missouri, started the first four games of the season before being sidelined by a knee injury. Powell is 101-of-153 for 960 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in those four games.
Gunnar Watson has started the last four games and is 68-of-100 for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns without an interception. Watson started nine games last season before being beaten out for the job by Powell.
Tez Johnson is the teams leading receiver with 46 catches for 481 yards and three touchdowns.
Reggie Todd in the next leading receiver with 21 catches for 257 yards and a touchdown. However Todd has been indefinitely suspended after being arrested on a charge of hindering prosecution in relation to a shooting during a high school football game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium on October 15.
Three other receivers have over 100 yards receiving on the season and five have 10 or more catches on the season.
While the offense hasn’t been overly productive, they really been kept in games by their defense.
The Jags know how that goes.
Defense
The Troy defense is a scrappy, stingy unit.
Statistically speaking the Trojans defense allows an average of 21.6 points, 99.9 rushing yards, 211.4 passing yards, and 311.3 total yards of offense per game.
Opponents are converting 35-of-101 (34.7%) 3rd down attempts and 6-of-9 (66.7%) 4th down attempts.
When opponents get into the red zone, they have scored all 13 times, however less than half have been touchdowns (6-of-13).
As a team the defense has 59 tackles for loss with 27 sacks, 13 interceptions, and 3 fumble recoveries.
Linebacker Carlton Martial from Mobile’s McGill-Toolen HS, leads the team with 70 total tackles, 31 solo, 8 tackles for loss, a sack, and an interception.
The next two combined come up one short of Martial’s total. Javon Solomon from the Bandit position has 35 total stops, 19 solo with 11.5 tackles for loss and team leading 8 sacks and an interception. Linebacker KJ Robertson has 34 total stops with 3 tackles for loss and 1/2 sack.
The defense kept the game against Coastal Carolina close in the fourth quarter. The Chanticleers gambled with a fake punt on a 4th and 4 from their own 31, which paid off in their favor. Though they still had to punt a little later, they were able to burn more time off the clock before doing so.
The Trojan defense forced three interceptions in the fourth quarter against Texas State. One of them went for a touchdown which provided the go-ahead score.
The week before that the defense collected an interception which allowed the Trojans to drive and get the game-winning field goal with 1:46 left in the game.
Troy’s defense ranks 18th in the nation in total defense, 39th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing defense, T36th 3rd down conversion percentage, and T10th in turnovers gained. Which right there with the Jags.
Special Teams
Brooks Buce is 4-of-4 on field goal attempts, his longes of the season is only 34 yards and is 24-of-25 in extra point attempts.
Luke Magliozzi has punted 38 times on the season with an average of 42.8 yards per kick, 15 fair catches, 9 downed inside the 20, 7 have gone 50+ yards with the longest being 65 yards.
South Alabama
One win away from bowl eligibility. Did any fans think this would happen a year ago?
It’s a testament to head coach Kane Wommack and his staff for the progress they’ve been able to make through eight games.
Offense
Four touchdowns on their first four possessions. This is type of execution a coach wants to see.
Statistically the Jags are averaging 29.1 points, 133.4 rushing yards, 261.1 passing yards and 394.5 total yards of offense per game.
They are converting 43-of-115 3rd down attempts (37%) and they are converting 13-of-20 on 4th down (65%).
The offense has given the ball away 13 times with 8 fumbles loss on 10 total fumbles and five interceptions.
Terrion Avery, who wore the honorary #5 jersey, showed why he earned. Avery was only the second Jag rusher to run for over 100 yards this season. He continues to be the Jags leading rusher with 399 yards on 95 carries with a touchdown.
Bryan Hill is next in line with 271 yards on 58 carries with three touchdowns. Kareem Walker, in only his second game back from a quad inury, has 237 yards on 63 carries with four touchdowns in five games of action.
Jake Bentley is the first Jag in five seasons to throw for over 2,000 yards. And he’s only 2/3rds of the way through the season!
On the season Bentley is 181-of-259 (69.9%) for 2,073 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Not only is Jalen Tolbert leading the team, but he’s among the best in the conference and the nation in receiving. He has 54 catches for 967 yards with six touchdowns.
Jalen Wayne is next in line with 34 catches for 385 yards and two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 262 yards on 32 catches. Lincoln Sefcik has 17 catches for 146 yards with three touchdowns.
Defense
South Alabama’s defense held the Red Wolves to only 28 yards of total offense in the first half. The rushing yardage was -12! Though they weren’t quite as dominant in the second half, they didn’t allow a single touchdown.
Statistically the defense is allowing an average of 21 points, 118.5 rushing yards, 202.2 passing yards and 320.8 total offensive yards per game.
Opponents are converting 33-of-113 (29%) of their 3rd down attempts and 9-of-16 (56%) of their 4th down attempts.
On the season they have 54 tackles for loss with 24 sacks. Jamal Brooks, despite not playing, still leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss. Charles Coleman III tied CJ Rias for the team lead with 3 sacks.
With Darrell Luter’s two interceptions he jumps Tre Young into the team lead with 3 on the season.
Quentin Wilfawn leads the team with 36 total stops, 18 solo with two tackles for loss and a sack. Keith Gallmon and Yam Banks are still tied with 35 stops each and both have 21 solo.
The first two interceptions last week came at great times. The Red Wolves were starting to move the ball some and the Jags were able to shut those drives down with turnovers. The final one simply sealed the game with a nice exclamation point.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo connected on all four extra points against Arkansas State, he’s not 26-of-28 on the season. He also connected on a 39 yard field, his only attempt of the night, to put the icing on the game. He’s not 9-of-13 on the season.
Jack Brooks’ punting averaging a solid 41.6 yards per attempt.
Keys to the Game
Offensive line
Which way the game goes will greatly depend offensive line play. Both defenses create havoc which results in negative plays and turnovers.
The Jaguar offensive line needs to communicate and play well in a hostile environment. If they can give Bentley and his receivers time, the Trojan defense is susceptible to big plays. Can you think of a better pair of receivers ready to exploit a secondary deep than the two Jalen’s?
Playing Behind Schedule
The Trojan defense generate a lot of negative plays. The Jaguar offense will have to find a way to be comfortable playing behind schedule.
That means they need to come to terms with and be comfortable executing 2nd-and-12 or 3rd-and-long situations. They don’t necessarily need to get all the yards back in a chunk but they must execute each and every play with a neutral mindset.
A player does not need to be heroic when behind schedule, they just need to execute their job each and every play at a high level no matter the previous outcome.
Injuries
You can’t talk about injuries without circling back to point number one: offensive line.
The Jags are thin as gift tissue paper on the offensive line right now. Center James Jackson injured his knee a couple of games ago. Hadon Merchant missed last week with a knee injury. Right guard Anterrious Gray suffered a concussion against Arkansas State and will have to clear the concussion protocol in order to play against Troy.
Due to Jackson’s injury, Trey Simpson moved from guard to center. If neither Jackson nor Merchant are able to play against Troy, that would likely leave Kent Foster and a group of freshmen and former walk-ons to back up the interior of the offensive line.
But that’s not all.
Jamal Brooks missed playing time against Arkansas State due to a shoulder injury that he had been trying to play through.
Bryan Hill broke a 47 yard run, his only carry of the game, but exited the game with a shoulder injury of his own.
Not only do they need to stay healthy but, if needed, they need to be ready if their number is called.
Prediction
Head coach Kane Wommack talked to the team about the Battle for the Belt rivalry on Monday. He brought in the empty case that houses the belt when under South Alabama’s care.
The Trojans have won the last three games in the series and currently holds a 6 games to 3 advantage in the series.
The last time the Jags won was in 2017 when coach Wommack was the defensive coordinator.
What could be sweeter than the Jags ending the three winning streak, bringing the belt back home, and getting bowl eligible against your in-state rival?
But Troy would like to keep their streak alive and also get within one game of bowl eligibility themselves.
Troy is favored by 3.5 points in the game. Basically an even game but given the three point home boost. I think the Jags get it done and win outright, get bowl eligible, and bring the belt back to Mobile.
Go Jags!
Preview: South Alabama Looking For 3rd Consecutive Win Over Arkansas State On Homecoming
Kickoff: Saturday October 30, 4:00pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
South Alabama ran into a fired-up ULM team last week that put up season-high numbers on the Jags defense. It was uncharacteristic of the defense to struggle as much as they did against the ULM offense.
But credit is due to ULM (4-3, 2-2 SBC) and offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez for scheming a game plan and preparing their players for the Jaguars (4-3, 1-3 SBC) defense.
ULM put up 554 total yards of offense on the Jaguars with 369 yards coming through the air.
USA only managed to briefly seize control of the momentum in the game in the third quarter against ULM. They opened the half with a 10 play, 75 yard touchdown drive to tie the game. The defense held on a 4th and 3 at the Jags 34 yard line to give the ball back to the offense. Then the offense only took four plays to cover the 66 yards, the final 40 via a touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert.
It seemed at that time that the halftime adjustments had cured the ills.
But ULM took the ball on the ensuing kickoff and responded to the Jags two-consecutive scores with a touchdown of their own to tie the game again.
The Warhawks had retaken the momentum and would not relinquish it.
Arkansas State
South Alabama’s next opportunity to get a game closer to bowl eligibility comes up this weekend. The Jags will host Arkansas State (1-6, 0-3 SBC) for their annual homecoming on Saturday.
Last season the Jags notched their first win in Jonesboro in four tries. It marked the Jags first two-game winning streak against the Red Wolves and the third win in the last four meetings.
Overall the Jags still trail in the series 3 games to 6.
Gone is coach Blake Anderson. His replacement is former Tennessee head coach Butch Jones and most recently University of Alabama analyst.
However the Butch Jones tenure is off to a rough start.
The Red Wolves are off to a 1-6 start to the season. But they’ve had some close calls. They came up short in a shootout against Memphis 55-50, on the road against Tulsa 41-34, and just last week they fell to Louisiana-Lafayette 28-27 coming off their bye week.
But they’ve also been on the wrong side of some blowouts too. They fell to Washington 52-3, to Georgia Southern 59-33, and to Coastal Carolina 52-20.
Each week you’re not quite sure which team you’re going to get.
Offense
Arkansas State averages 29.6 points per game, 436.3 total yards, 348.6 passing yards, and 87.7 rushing yards per game.
They are converting 36-of-99 3rd down attempts (36%) and 1-of-7 4th down attempts (14%) on the season.
The quarterback has been sacked 26 times on the season for a loss of 140 yards. That’s an average of 3.7 sacks per game.
They have turned the ball over 11 times on the season, seven interceptions and four fumbles lost of their eight total fumbles.
Their top three running backs are all within a couple carries of each other. Lincoln Pare has 41 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown, Johnnie Lang has 44 carries for 172 yards, and Alan Lamar have 40 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown.
The Red Wolves do not have as much of a two-quarterback system as they have utilized under coach Anderson. However they are still utilizing a two quarterback system.
James Blackman is 109-of-184 (59.2%) for 1,334 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Layne Hatcher is 78-of-139 (56.1%) for 1,106 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. Each quarterback have missed a game each.
ASU has a long list of receivers with catches. Three of them stand out from the rest. Corey Rucker has 35 catches for 550 yards and eight touchdowns. Te’Vaila Hunt has 32 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns. Jeff Foreman has 24 catches for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Four other receivers have over 100 receiving yards on the season and five receivers beyond the three mentioned have double-digit numbers of receptions.
Lamar is the team leader with 900 all-purpose yards with 690 of them coming from kickoff returns. That includes a 93 yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Tulsa.
The Red Wolves have rushed for over 100 yards in a game twice. In their only win of the season they rushed for 194 yards against Central Arkansas. The other time was last weeks close game against Louisiana where they ran for 113 yards.
Defense
The defense has really been the Achilles heel for the Red Wolves. Particularly their run defense it seems.
Lets delve into the statistics first.
The defense is allowing a whopping average of 44 points per game.
On average the defense is allowing 578.6 total yards of offense, 288 yards passing and 290.6 yards rushing per game this season.
As a defensive coach those numbers make you cringe a bit. As an offensive coach I’m sure that makes you smile.
Opponents are converting 36-of-87 3rd down attempts (41%) and 5-of-6 4th down attempts (83%).
Safety Elery Alexander leads the team with 50 total tackles, 31 solo with a sack and two fumble recoveries.
The next closest defender is linebacker Caleb Bonner with 39 stops, 16 solo.
Georgia Southern ran for 503 yards and averaged 9.9 yards per rush. Coastal Carolina rushed for 294 yards and 8.2 yards per rush. Louisiana ran for 424 yards and 8.0 yards per rush. Tulsa ran for 308 yards and 6.3 yards per rush.
Louisiana only threw the ball 20 times in the game with 11 completions for 122 yards. Their final drive was a gruelling 18 play, 88 yard march burning 10:26 off the clock before they took two knees to end the game.
Special Teams
Blake Grupe is 22-of-23 on extra points and 10-of-12 on field goals for the season. His long is a 50 yarder against Tulsa.
Ryan Hanson has 42 punts on the season and is averaging 43.3 yards per attempt. He has 9 punts that have gone 50+ yards, the longest being a 60 yard kick. He has 16 of them inside the 20 yard line and none have been touchbacks.
South Alabama
Good news was that some injured players returned to the lineup for the Jags. Kareem Walker, Caullin Lacy were among those who returned.
However with the good also comes some bad. They lost Hadon Merchant to a knee injury early in the game. At a minimum he’s going to miss some time and could possibly miss the remainder of the season.
Also at practice during in the week leading up to the ULM game Josh McCulloch suffered an injury that kept him sidelined. It’s unknown if McCulloch will be ready for the Red Wolves.
But others continued to be hampered by lingering issues. Jamal Brooks was one of those who had to leave the ULM game a few times but tried to play through the pain.
Offense
South Alabama is averaging 28.9 points, 390.7 total yards, 263 passing yards, and 127.7 rushing yards per game on offense.
Their third down efficiency needs improvement. They are converting 38-of-101 (38%) 3rd down attempts on the season. They are converting 11-of-17 (65%) 4th down attempts on the season. That includes the 4th and 3 near the goal line last Saturday that went for a touchdown.
The Jags have converted 26-of-31 (84%) of their red zone trips into scores. Of those 26 scores, 22 (71%) of them have been touchdowns.
Jaguar quarterbacks have been sacked 14 times for a loss of 88 yards on the season.
Terrion Avery leads the Jaguar backfield with 286 yards on 73 carries with a touchdown. Bryan Hill is next with 224 yards on 57 carries through five games with three touchdowns. Kareem Walker has 211 yards on 58 carries and four touchdowns in only four games.
Jake Bentley is completing 69.1% of his throws. He is 152-of-220 for 1,825 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Jalen Tolbert is far and away the leading pass catcher in the offense. He has 46 receptions for 873 yards and four touchdowns. That averages out to be 124.7 yards per game and 19 yards per catch.
Jalen Wayne has 343 yards on 29 catches with two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 27 catches for 223 yards. Tight end Lincoln Sefcik has 12 catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns.
As mentioned above, the Jags offensive line has suffered more than their share of injuries this season. However there’s a good chance that James Jackson could return to action this week. If so that would allow Trey Simpson to move back over to left guard.
Defense
The Jaguars are allowing an average of 22.1 points, 334.6 total yards, 204.6 passing yards, and 130 rushing yards per game. Which rank nationally at T43rd, T35th, 40th, T40th respectively.
The Jags defense has 13 takeaways which is tied for 24th nationally.
Keith Gallmon and Yam Banks are tied for the lead with 34 total stops each. Both has 20 solo stops each. Gallmon has 2.5 tackles for loss, an interception and a fumble recovery. Banks has 4 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles.
CJ Rias continues to lead the defense with three sacks on the season. Tre Young also continues to lead the defense with two interceptions.
Special Teams
Jack Brooks has punted 31 times with an average of 41.9 yards per punt. Eight downed inside the 20, 11 fair caught, six have gone 50+ yards and his longest has gone 54 yards.
Diego Guajardo is 22-of-24 on extra point attempts. He is 8-of-12 in field goal attempts, missing one attempt in each of the last four games. His long on the season in 48 yards.
Keys to the Game
Consistent Execution
In every game, except maybe the Georgia Southern game, the Jags have had stretches with some quite poor execution. In the first five games, the Jags opening possession all ended with three-and-outs.
Against ULM the defense couldn’t execute well enough to stop the Warhawks passing game taking advantage of seams in the coverage.
The only game where the Jags executed consistently for the most part was against Georgia Southern. And you can see what they are capable of when they do.
Stay Healthy
Many teams are bruised and beat up by this point in the season.
The Jags are no exception. And they may be more bruised and beat up than a few others.
They need to get through a week without accumulating more injuries, especially on the offensive line. But the linebacker corps could use a break from the injuries as well.
Flying Footballs
There is no denying that Jalen Tolbert is a beast.
Arkansas State is particularly bad at defending the pass. This could set up for a huge game for Jake Bentley, Jalen Tolbert, and the rest of the Jaguar receivers.
But Arkansas get most of their offensive yards through the air themselves. After ULM’s slicing and dicing of the Jaguar secondary, this should be of some concern.
Prediction
The Jags chances are growing fewer by the game. If they want to attain bowl eligibility that is. Arkansas State looks like they should be a team the Jags can and should win against.
However last week the Jags were a double-digit favorite and we see how that turned out. You simply cannot take anything for granted.
As we keep pointing out, the final three or four games are brutal. And as it stands right now they will need to find at least one win out of those four to get bowl eligible.
Three consecutive weeks of travel to rival Troy, App State, and SEC opponent Tennessee is followed by the regular season finale against Coastal Carolina at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
But we can’t lose focus on this week. Arkansas State is coming and the Jags need a win.
The Jags are favored in the game by 9.5 points. Last week I had a bad feeling about the game. I picked the Jags to win but not to cover. Well, I was a bit wrong.
This week I feel a bit better. The Jags will be at home, not playing in Monroe, LA. It’s homecoming and the opposing team’s rush defense is particularly weak and has a weak rushing offense.
If the Jags secondary can hold up against the Red Wolves passing, they can win the game. But as we saw last week, the Jags had better be prepared.
I think the Jags win, but they don’t cover. It may come down to a defensive stand late in the game or Diego’s leg once again. It could also be a one sided affair, it really depends on which Jaguar team and which Red Wolves team show up at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Go Jags!
Preview: Southern Miss at South Alabama
Kickoff: Saturday September 4, 7:00 pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPN+
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5FM, 96.1FM The Rocket, iHeartRadio
The new era of South Alabama football gets underway Saturday, September 4, 2021 with the 7pm kickoff at Hancock-Whitney Stadium against Southern Miss.
Gone is Steve Campbell after three seasons and only nine wins to show for it.
In a homecoming of sorts, Kane Wommack was hired after being a finalist for the Broyles Award last season as defensive coordinator at Indiana University. The hire makes Wommack the youngest head coach in FBS football at 34 years old.
Just like his previous stint at South Alabama, Wommack brings a tremendous amount of energy and enthusiasm to the field and locker room. Few get more excited about a big play than he does.
Coach Wommack brought in Corey Batoon, who is well versed in his 4-2-5 SwarmD system. The SwarmD system was developed by Coach Wommack’s father, Dave Wommack, and is the scheme that coach Kane Wommack has implemented and improved throughout his coaching career. The same system produced 18 takeaways last season for Indiana.
Wommack also brought in Major Applewhite as offensive coordinator to give the Jaguars struggling offense a makeover.
Applewhite spent the last two seasons on the Alabama staff as an analyst. Prior to that he was head coach at Houston where he took over after being Tom Herman’s offensive coordinator.
Additionally, two offensive assistant coaches hired were Rob Ezell and Gordon Steele who were also analysts at Alabama. Steele is the son of former Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele.
Newcomers Making Impact
Coach Wommack and his staff brought in a total of 19 newcomers intent to make an immediate impact. After taking over as head coach in December, the Jags brought in 13 Division I scholarship transfers, three junior college transfers as well as a few walk-ons. Additionally they brought in a healthy number of high school signees, which are the foundation of the Jaguars future.
Out of those newcomers, eight of them are expected to start against Southern Miss on Saturday. Six of those starters are on the offensive side of the ball.
Leading that group, and arguably the most high-profile, is quarterback Jake Bentley. Bentley started his collegiate career at South Carolina in 2016 being redshirted. They removed his redshirt and in his second start he led the Gamecocks to an upset win over nationally ranked Tennessee. He started the remainder of that season. In 2018 he set the single-game passing record with 510 yards in a loss to eventual national champion Clemson in Death Valley.
Over four seasons at South Carolina and one at Utah, Bentley has a 62.4% completion rate with 61 touchdowns to 38 interceptions. He won the starting job in spring practice over Desmond Trotter.
Another high-profile transfer is Kareem Walker. He comes to USA from Mississippi State and won the starting job in preseason camp.
The offensive line, which has been a serious problem the last couple of seasons, sees three newcomers slated to start. Also a true freshman is listed as second string at left and right guard. This group may be impacted the most by the newcomers.
Defensively Jamal Brooks (Missouri) is the only newcomer slated to start. He beat out a number of returning players for the position and will be tasked with calling the defensive signals this fall as well. Six other newcomers are listed on the defensive depth chart though.
Travis Drosos (Colorado) is listed as the starting long snapper on special teams.
Most of these new faces are not on their last year of eligibility either. Of the 19 brought in, 14 of them have at least two years of eligibility left. Some have four years of eligibility remaining.
Injuries
Linebacker Nick Mobley, a three-year starter for the Jaguars, was medically disqualified prior to fall camp. The team doctors detected a condition to the neck and spine area and for his wellbeing he is not allowed to play. Mobley had 94 tackles for the Jaguars last season.
The only significant injury the Jaguars have suffered in preseason camp was defensive end Jamie Sheriff. Sheriff sustained a torn LCL in his left knee which will require surgery and will sideline him until spring. Sheriff was practicing with the first-team defense at the Bandit position.
Charles Coleman III, a sophomore from Huntsville, AL, is listed as the projected starter against the Golden Eagles in place of Sheriff.
Southern Miss
The Jags defeated Southern Miss in the 2020 season opener in Hattiesburg. That led to the resignation of Jay Hopson after the “highly disappointing home loss.”
USM hired Will Hall, the former Tulane offensive coordinator, to helm the program. Hall got his first head coaching position when he was promoted from offensive coordinator at West Alabama after the retirement of Bobby Wallace. He spent three seasons there before taking the head coaching position at West Georgia for three years. He then served as offensive coordinator at Louisiana-Lafayette and Memphis for one season each before spending the last two at Tulane again as an OC.
In his six seasons as a Division II head coach he compiled a 56-20 record, losing no more then four games in a season.
USM has a veteran offense returning 10 starters from last season. The receiving corps could possibly be one of the better groups in Conference USA. However the Golden Eagles were plagued with turnovers a year ago. They committed 16 turnover, which was 35th most in the nation.
The difference in these two teams match up last season was the Jaguar defensive front tackling and applying pressure on the quarterback. It was one of the few times they were able to do that last year.
USM has Frank Gore Jr and Darius Maberry as a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield and will be featured in Coach Hall’s power running attack. Add in running quarterback Trey Lowe III, a West Virginia transfer who started three games last season, you have another dimension USM didn’t have last season.
South Alabama Offense
USA allowed 40 sacks last season which was 126th in the nation. Running backs only averaged 2.9 yards per carry last season. Those were two big reasons why it was a priority to bring in some help on the offensive line.
To help bolster the running back position, the Jags brought in Kareem Walker. Carlos Davis, the Jags leading rusher a year ago, was indefinitely suspended prior to spring practice and entered the transfer portal.
The Jaguar offense only converted 39.1% of their 3rd down attempts ranking in at 71st in the nation last season. They also averaged 358.5 yards of offense per game (95th in the nation). Most of that yardage came through the air as they averaged 247.2 yards per game (46th in the nation).
But what matters most, the Jags averaged 19.9 points per game which was 112th in the nation.
The Jags have had inconsistent quarterback play for a number of years now. Bentley and offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Major Applewhite look to turn that around. Going against a young defensive coordinator may help that effort.
It also helps when you have a receiver like Jalen Tolbert, probably among the best in the nation, on the receiving side of your passes. Then add Jalen Wayne, Caullin Lacy, and Cade Sutherland into the mix and you really have some downfield targets to throw to.
South Alabama Defense
Defensively the Jags only allowed 27.3 points per game (53rd in the nation) and forced 14 turnovers (49th).
However they allowed 436.4 yards per game (92nd), 261.9 yards passing per game (104th), and 8.7 yards per pass (114th).
Expecting an immediate turnaround in the defense may be unreasonable. The players have been learning the 4-2-5 SwarmD system and haven’t been put that system into practice under game conditions.
However between coach Wommack and coach Batoon, I feel they will be as prepared as they can be come game time. The fundamentals they have been building through spring practice and preseason camp will only be reinforced as the season progresses.
As mentioned previously, Jamal Brooks will be calling the defensive signals for the Jags from the Mike position. He will be tasked as the primary defender of USM’s running backs, primarily Frank Gore Jr. Gore Jr. rushed for 708 yards and two touchdowns on 121 carries as the leading rusher for the Golden Eagles. Gore Jr.
Devin Rockette enters his third season as a starting cornerback for USA. He and the Jags secondary will have to cover Jason Brownlee, the Golden Eagles leading receiver from a year ago. But throw in sophomore quarterback Trey Love III adding a running dimension to the offense and you have more to prepare for.
Golden Eagle head coach Will Hall has installed his power running attack offense but that goes against the strength of the Jaguars defense from last season.
Jag nose tackle Gi’Narious Johnson will be lining up opposite sixth-year senior center Arvin Fletcher. Fletcher has started 47 games as a Golden Eagle and is truly the anchor of the USM offensive line. Johnson, a freakishly strong player, can make it a very long night if he is able to consistently disrupt the center of the USM offensive line.
Keys to the Game
Offensive Line
The new staff identified the offense line as a position of need and addressed it in the offseason. Three newcomers will be starting on the offensive line. Getting good play out of this position will be key to get the Jaguar offense in gear and scoring points.
Quarterback
Jake Bentley brings a wealth of experience to the team. The sixth-year senior has started at South Carolina and Utah. He set the single-game passing record at South Carolina with 510 yards against Clemson.
While Desmond Trotter was not a bad player, he was simply beat out for the position. In a real competition for the starting position, Trotter looked much improved and ready to step in if needed.
Defense
This one is quite broad. The Jaguar secondary had problems last season. They will have to play better in order to have an improved season. But with a Broyles Finalist as your head coach along with coach Batoon’s experience with the SwarmD system he has improved, I think it will happen.
While the rush defense for the Jags was their strong point, they will be tried by Southern Miss on Saturday. Coach Hall has implemented his signature power rushing attack in Hattisburg. With a veteran and physical offensive line, they will present a serious challenge for the Jags.
Taking away the rushing attack and forcing USM into a one-dimensional offense with a young starting quarterback could be key to a Jags win.
Prediction
Both coaches are full of energy and are looking to start their tenure with a win. Hall the first has a FBS head coach and Wommack the first as a head coach, period.
The cultural change at South Alabama is quite evident and the players have bought into what the coaches have teaching. The defense picked up the system faster than anticipated, which is quite promising.
Southern Miss is a 1.5 point favorite in Mobile.
I think the Jags will start the season with a homefield win in what feels like the real debut of Hancock Whitney Stadium.