Preview: South Alabama Returns Home To Host Texas State
Kickoff: Saturday, November 12, 4:00pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Brandon Crum
South Alabama (7-2, 4-1 SBC) returns home after back-to-back road contests. It’ll be the first home game since the loss to rival Troy in the ‘Battle for the Belt.’ The road trip began with a 31-3 thumping of an ailing Arkansas State team. It wrapped up last week with a major gut-check of a game against Georgia Southern where the Jags came from behind to win 38-31.
It gave the Jags their first win in Statesboro, Georgia.
Against Georgia Southern, the Jags fell behind by two scores before the halfway mark of the first quarter. Carter Bradley’s first pass attempt was tipped, intercepted, and returned for a touchdown less than a minute into the game. Then a 50+ yard touchdown run on Georgia State’s first offensive possession.
In all they allowed 21 points in the first quarter but only allowed 10 points the rest of the way and only seven points in the second half.
The Jags trailed 31-17 around midway through the third quarter but from there it became the La’Damian Webb show. Webb would score all three of the Jaguars touchdowns down the stretch. He finished with 247 yards rushing with four touchdowns on 35 carries. He set single game records for yards and attempts and tied a record for touchdowns in a game.
It also marked his second-consecutive Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Week honor.
Louisiana-Lafayette had Troy 17-0 at halftime, however the Trojans managed to fight their way back and score the game winning touchdown with five seconds left. The Trojans continue to hold onto the Sun Belt Conference West lead over the Jags due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
While the Jags may not control their destiny in the Sun Belt Conference West division race, they control what happens in the next game.
That next game is Texas State.
Texas State (3-6, 1-4 SBC)
Bobcat head coach Jake Spavital is in his fourth season at the helm. He is 12-33 overall and 8-21 in conference play. The Bobcats upset the Jags in overtime last season 33-31. The Bobcats scored a game-tying touchdown with :17 left in regulation to force overtime.
In overtime both teams scored touchdowns in the first overtime. Texas State missed a field goal and forced a fumble in the second overtime. Both teams failed to convert their two-point conversions in the third overtime. Then in the fourth overtime the Bobcats convert first, but Jake Bentley’s pass attempted fell incomplete for the loss. The Bobcats would finish the season 4-8 overall and 3-5 in conference play.
Offense
This is the third season that Spavital is calling the plays on offense.
On the season the Bobcats are averaging 22.6 points, 330.7 total yards, 242.3 passing yards, 88.3 rushing yards, and 30:37 time of possession per game.
They are converting 52-of-138 (37.7%) of their 3rd down attempts and have converted 4-of-16 (25%) of their 4th down attempts on the season. While they are scoring well when they get into the red zone, they are only coming away with touchdowns 2/3rds of the time. Of their 27 trips, they’ve scored 24 times with 16 being touchdowns.
Quarterback Layne Hatcher’s name should be familiar. He transferred to Texas State after spending the previous three seasons at Arkansas State. In 32 career games and 16 starts the threw for 7,427 yards and 65 touchdowns. He is currently 4th all time in Arkansas State history in career passing yards, 3rd in career passing touchdowns, and 4th in completion percentage (61.6%).
So far this season Hatcher is 215-of-337 (63.8%) for 2,181 yards and 18 touchdowns with 8 interceptions.
The Bobcats top receiver is Ashtyn Hawkins with 56 catches for 587 yards and 7 touchdowns. The next closest receiver in receptions is Julian Ortega-Jones with 28 catches for 266 yards and a touchdown in eight games played. The next closest receiver is yardage is Marcell Barbee with 21 catches for 299 yards and a touchdown in eight games played. Only four other receivers have caught double-digit passes on the season. But a total of 18 players have caught passes on the season.
Lincoln Pare, another name that may be familiar, also transferred to San Marcos from Arkansas State. He leads the rushing attack with 458 yards on 120 carries with three touchdowns. Calvin Hill adds 333 yards on 76 carries with a touchdown in seven games played. Jahmyl Jeter has 108 yards on 35 carries and a touchdown in eight games.
Defense
Jake Spavital’s brother Zac, is the defensive coordinator for the Bobcats. He has helped the Bobcats to ranking among the nations top 50 teams in forcing turnovers in 2020. They were a top 25 pass defense in 2019 when they allowed an average of 199.3 passing yards per game that season.
This season the Bobcats are allowing an average of 24.9 points, 358.9 total yards, 239.7 passing yards, and 119.2 rushing yards per game.
Opponents are converting 48-of-132 (36.4%) of their 3rd down attempts and 9-of-19 (47.4%) of their 4th down attempts on the season. While opponents have been in the red zone 30 times on the season, they have scored points in 24 of those trips and 18 of those scores were touchdowns.
London Harris leads the team with 64 total stops, 30 of them solo, with two tackles for loss, a sack, and a forced fumble. Levi Bell leads the team with 10.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, and six quarterback hurries from the defensive line. Jordan Revels had 55 total tackles, 21 solo, 9 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 7 quarterback hurries and a fumble recovery from his outside linebacker position. Defensive lineman Nelson Mbanasor has 8 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, and two forced fumbles. Bell and Mbanasor are co-leaders in sacks.
Kordell Rodgers leads the team with 4 interceptions of the teams 10 total interceptions.
Special Teams
Seth Keller is the team’s primary placekicker. He is 9-of-11 with a long of 41 yards and has converted all 23 extra point attempts. Mason Shipley made his only kick attempt on the season from 54 yards.
Seamus O’Kelly is averaging 41.9 yards per punt with a long of 68 yards, 8 kicks of 50+ yards, 28 fair catches, nine downed inside the 20.
South Alabama (7-2, 4-1 SBC)
The Jags locked in the programs first-ever winning season since transitioning to the FBS ranks. But head coach Kane Wommack does not want to just get back to a bowl game. Anytime the subject is mentioned he tells people that he wants it to be an expectation that South Alabama is going to a bowl game year after year.
As players continue to build upon coach Wommack’s process-oriented approach, the results are showing up on the field.
And in the win-loss column too.
Offense
After the big offensive day against Georgia Southern, the Jags are now averaging 32.3 points, 432.9 total yards, 265.4 passing yards, 167.4 rushing yards, and 32:22 time of possession per game.
They are converting 58-of-131 (44.3%) of their 3rd down attempts and 6-of-13 (46.2%) of their 4th down attempts.
Across their 30 trips into the opponents red zone, the Jags have scored points 34 times, with 26 of them being touchdowns.
La’Damian Webb is closing in on a 1,000-yard season. He has 896 yards on 163 carries with 13 touchdowns on the season. He is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
Omni Wells is next in the Jaguars stable of running backs with 175 yards on 39 carries. Marco Lee has 157 yards on 44 carries with four touchdowns. Braylon McReynolds has 150 yards on 28 carries.
Carter Bradley is 188-of-289 (65.1%) for 2,281 yards, 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on the season.
Jalen Wayne leads the receiver trio with 670 yards on 46 catches with 7 touchdowns. Caullin Lacy leads the trio with 48 catches for 615 yards and three touchdowns. Devin Voisin, who has emerged as a clutch receiver, has 467 yards on 38 catches with a touchdown.
Defense
The Jags SwarmD defense has picked up where they left off last season with impressive national defensive rankings.
The rushing defense ranks 5th, 6th national in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, tied 18th in scoring defense, 12th nationally in red zone defense, T-19th in turnover margin, and 19th in time of possession.
On the season the Jags defense is allowing on average 19.1 points, 302.4 total yards, 217.3 passing yards, and 85.1 rushing yards per game.
Opponents are converting 33-of-119 (27.7%) of their 3rd down attempts and 10-of-18 (56.6%) of their 4th down attempts. Also, of opponents 26 trips into the red zone, they came away with points on 19 of those trips and only 12 of them were touchdowns.
James Miller continues to lead the defense with 51 total stops, 28 solo, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and two quarterback hurries. Trey Kiser is second with 47 total stops, 33 solo, with six tackles for loss and two sacks with a fumble recovery.
CJ Rias and Jamie Sheriff co-lead the team with four sacks each. Though Rias leads the team with eight tackles for loss.
Yam Banks leads the team and is tied for the national lead with five interceptions on the season.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo remains perfect on the season by making his 12th field goal attempt of the season against Georgia Southern. Guajardo has only missed one of his 34 extra point attempts on the season.
Jack Brooks is averaging 42.1 yards per kick with a season long of 58 yards and 14 kicks downed inside the 20.
Keys to the Game
Establish the Run
I can hear you now, “but they’ve been running the ball great the last two weeks, why is it key for this game?”
Well, despite their record, the Texas State defense is a very strong unit. Are they a Troy caliber defense? I don’t think so. But they have enough talent on that side of the ball to give me some concern because it stacks up a little bit like Troy.
Troy was able to just smother us defensively. None of our running backs could find room to run, their defensive speed closed any hole, and La’Damian Webb wasn’t at full health either.
However, over the last two weeks, we’ve established that either Webb is back at full strength or very close to it. We’ll need him, the rest of the running back corps, and the offensive line to play up to the task at hand.
Play Disciplined
Last week was another game with 13 penalties for 118 yards assessed on the Jags. As a team that prides itself on being very physical, it also comes with penalties. However, the number of unsportsmanlike penalties needs to be reduced. Plus you just cannot commit some of those penalties in certain situations.
Dontae Lucas being ejected for an unsportsmanlike penalty is completely avoidable. He is suspended for this game against Texas State. Actions have consequences. Thankfully the penalty didn’t seem to hurt the team against Georgia Southern. The offense was able to continue their domination against the Eagles with Kent Foster in as his replacement. That also goes a long way to show how much this staff has been able to turn around this offensive line in only their second season.
The worst penalties for the Jags have been offensive penalties that get them off schedule. When you dig yourself into a 1st & 15 or 1st & 20 situation, those have often been drive killers.
Staying Healthy
Like all teams, the Jags have had their share of injuries and have managed to continue to play at a high level. Coach Wommack and his staff have done a good job with player rotations and preparations. When a player has been forced out of a game, the “next man up” has been well prepared and has not had a significant drop-off in terms of play.
With three weeks left in the regular season, and still the hope for a spot in the conference championship game, health down the stretch will be key.
Seeing many key starters still playing at the end of the Arkansas State game was a little disconcerting. But at the end of the game, you could see Carter Bradley limping as he was jogging towards the locker room. The 2021 season was hampered down the stretch by an injury to starting quarterback Jake Bentley.
With La’Damian Webb’s workload the last two weeks, and dealing with flu-like symptoms last week, I hope they manage his workload in practice accordingly. He has had 68 carries and 409 yards rushing over that stretch. That is 41.7% of his carries and 45.6% of his rushing yardage for the season over the last two games alone.
Thankfully Braylon McReynolds is on track to clear the concussion protocol for the game on Saturday to hopefully give some additional help in the backfield.
Prediction
The Bobcats rallied and got us in overtime last year in San Marcos, TX. Actually, San Marcos is another place we’ve never won at on the road. But that will have to wait until next year to be settled. Conversely, the Jags have never lost to Texas State in Mobile either (two wins at Ladd-Peebles Stadium and one at Hancock Whitney Stadium).
The Jags are a solid 16.5-point favorite to win according to the different handicapping websites. Combine that with South Alabama’s strong play at home and Texas State’s poor play on the road and I understand why the line is set where it is.
I say the Jags win but I don’t think they cover the 16.5. I think the Bobcat defense will do just enough to keep the Jags under that line.
Go Jags!