Preview: South Alabama Travels To Texas State For First Road Conference Game Of The Season
Kickoff: Saturday October 9, 6 pm
Venue: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, Texas
TV: ESPN+
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5 fm, 96.1 fm The Rocket, iHeartRadio App
All eyes are on South Alabama this week. Not because of any national implications (not yet anyway). But because fans are eager to see how the Jaguars respond after the first loss under first year head coach Kane Wommack.
The Jags (3-1, 0-1 SBC) have spent the week preparing for their first conference road game of the season at Texas State (1-3, 0-0).
Last Saturday the Jags dropped their game to Louisiana 20-18 despite having two opportunities to take the lead late in the game. The first was a 4th and 1 at the 4 yard line where Jake Bentley’s pass was ruled incomplete, though Lincoln Sefcik insists that it was a catch. The other was a 37-yard field goal attempt that was missed wide right with 1:06 left.
This all transpired after the Jags fought back from a 20-0 deficit early in the second quarter. The Jags scored 18 unanswered points after that point giving themselves the opportunity to win the game. This was against the Sun Belt Conference West Division Champion for the last three seasons and the preseason choice to win it again.
As coach Wommack said in the post game press conference, the Jags played some of their best football in the last 40 minutes of the Louisiana game.
All the focus has shifted to Texas State though.
The Louisiana game is over and in the past. The Jags control their future and have to approach each game as if their record is 0-0.
A neutral mindset.
Texas State
Despite playing four games, the Bobcats are still quite a mystery.
They opened the season with a 29-20 loss to Baylor and an overtime win over Florida International. However the team was without more than a dozen players in their last two games due to injuries and Covid protocols. They lost to FCS Incarnate Word 42-34 and to Eastern Michigan 59-21.
They’ll host the Jags coming off a well-timed bye week.
Offense
The Texas State offense is led by quarterback Brady McBride, a 2020 transfer from Memphis. He’s thrown seven touchdowns so far this season.
McBride is another dynamic running quarterback. After facing Alcorn State and Louisiana, hopefully this will only help the Jags to be prepared for his style of play.
The Bobcats average 24.5 points and just under 333 yards of total offense per game. They average 196.5 through the air and 136.3 on the ground per game.
Calvin Hill has 239 yards rushing on 49 carries, appearing in all four games. Brock Sturges is next with 151 yards on 33 carries with two touchdowns in three games. Jahmyl Jeter has 96 yards on 17 carries with three touchdowns in four games. McBride has 36 rushing yards, but that is after 87 yards has been deducted from his total gain to account for runs for loss and sacks.
McBride is 79-of-137 passing on the season for 786 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
Marcell Barbee leads the Bobcats with 209 yards receiving on 20 catches with three touchdowns. Javen Banks is next with 13 catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns. Ten other receivers have caught passes on the season, the highest among them has 84 yards on 7 catches.
In addition to the three interceptions McBride has throw, the offense has fumbled the ball six times and lost two of them to the opponent.
Texas State is converting 38% of their 3rd down attempts (21-of-56). But have converted 5-of-7 4th down attempts (71%).
The Bobcats have been very efficient in the red zone so far this season. In all 14 trips they have come away with points, 10 trips they came away with touchdowns.
Defense
The Bobcats allow an average of 36.8 points and 435 total yards of offense per game. That breaks down into an average of 175 yards rushing and 260 yards passing per game.
Opponents are completing over 60% of their passing attempts. They are 85-of-140 for 1,040 yards with 10 touchdowns. Texas State has only picked off one opponents passes.
Opponents have converted 31-of-58 3rd down attempts (53%) and 2-0f-3 4th down attempts (67%).
When opponents get into the red zone they are scoring 80% of the time (16-of-20). Of those 16 scoring trips, 13 of them have been touchdowns.
Along with the one interception, the defense has forced nine fumbles and recovered five of them.
Defensive back Troy Lefeged Jr leads the defense with 28 total stops, 12 of them solo. Zion Childress, a safety, is next with 26 total stops, 16 solo along with the lone interception and two forced fumbles. In all three of the top four tacklers all come from the secondary, the lone exception is a linebacker.
Texas State’s pass rush ranks 107th in the nation with only three sacks this season.
Special Teams
Placekicker Seth Keller is perfect on the season, he is 5-for-5 on field goals with his longest being 48 yards. He has also made all 11 extra point attempts.
Punter Seamus O’Kelly is averaging 38.4 yards per kick. He only has two that have gone 50 yards or more and only three have been downed inside the 20.
Jacob Bates had handled all but two of the kickoffs with nine touchbacks and one kick out of bounds.
The kick returners have returned 11 kicks for an average of 19.4 yards. One has gone for a 60 yard return but there have been no kickoff returns for a touchdown.
South Alabama
Offense
The Jags offense had another sputtering start to the game last Saturday. Each of their first offensive possessions this season have been three-and-outs.
Often the problems are self-inflicted with negative-yardage plays and getting behind the down and distance schedule.
It’s possible the Jags get their leading rusher, Kareem Walker, back this week after sitting out last game with a quad issue. However Bryan Hill stepped in and ran the ball great in Walker’s absence.
Offensive stats wise, the Jags are averaging 24.8 points with 363 yards of total offense per game. That breaks down to 131.8 yards rushing and 231.8 yards passing per game.
They have converted 21-of-60 3rd down attempts (35%) and 5-of-10 4th down attempts (50%) through four games.
Kareem Walker not only leads the team in rushing yards (208) but also in carries (53) and touchdowns (4). Terrion Avery has 142 yards on 45 carries and a touchdown in four games. Bryan Hill already has 132 yards rushing on 31 carries with three touchdowns in only two games.
Jake Bentley is 79-of-122 (65%) for 927 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Jalen Tolbert leads the team with 20 catches for 460 yards. Caullin Lacy has 19 catches for 152 yards and Jalen Wayne has 15 catches for 153 yards. The only receivers to catch touchdown passes have been Walker and Trent Tyre.
Along with the one interception, the offense has fumbled the ball six times and lost five of them.
Defense
The Jags defense continues to rank high nationally.
South Alabama is third in the nation in Stop Rate (percentage of possessions that end in a punt, turnover, or turnover on downs). The Jags stop rate is 84.6% which only trails Georgia (93.4%) and Iowa (85.7%) on the list.
In numerous categories they rank in the top 20 nationally like Total Defense, Scoring Defense, Rushing Defense, and Pass Efficiency Defense. They lead the country in third-down conversion rate (19%), is 3rd in the nation in total first downs allows per game (14.8), and opponent’s red-zone scoring percentage (54.5%).
Statistically on the season they allow 16.8 points and 288.8 yards of total offense per game. That breaks down to 191 passing yards and 97.8 yards rushing per game.
As you can see, its a very stingy defense.
Jamal Brooks and Yam Banks lead the defense with 16 total stops each. Banks has 10 solo stops and Brooks has nine.
Wy’Kevious Thomas, Tre Young, and AJ DeShazor each have 15 stops with Young coming in with the most solo at 11.
The defense has forced five fumbles and recovered four. They also have 4 interceptions on the season for a total of eight takeaways.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo missed his first field goal attempt near the end of the Louisiana game, however he has made his four other attempts on the season. Of the four he’s made, three of them have been in the 40 yard range with the longest coming from 48 yards out.
Guajardo also missed two extra points. The sure-footed kicker had his first attempt blocked then a second one hit off the right upright on a very wet night at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Jack Brooks is averaging 41 yards per punt, three of them have gone over 50 yards with the longest traveling 53 yards. He’s had six downed inside the opponents 20 yards line with no touchbacks. One of his 22 attempts was blocked (Bowling Green).
Guajardo had handled 20 kickoffs with eight touchbacks.
Keys to the Game
Fast Start Offensively
The Jags offense has started each of the four games with a three-and-out. They’ve been marred by negative plays and played behind the chains each time.
They could really use at least a few first downs on their opening possession. Even better, take the opening possession down the field for a touchdown.
Turnovers
I always hate to use turnovers as a key to the game, because they always are. It’s common sense. But sometimes it just needs to be spotlighted.
With five lost fumbles on six overall fumbles through the first three games, the Jags did an excellent job of protecting the ball against Louisiana. Despite the often rainy conditions and wet field, the Jags didn’t put the ball on the ground once in the game.
Nor did they throw an interception.
They are +2 in turnover margin on the season after forcing the Cajun fumble.
First Down Production
The Jags were able to establish the run fairly early in the game against Louisiana. Bryan Hill and the Jags running backs were able to get some big chunks on first down.
They were giving offensive coordinator Major Applewhite 2nd and short. As a play caller, your offensive playbook is wide open in those situations.
You saw what they can do too.
Bentley was able to throw deep down field off play-action for Tolbert and Wayne. Some of them turned into some big gains and flipped field position.
Tolbert will out jump just about anyone to make a catch. If the defender doesn’t keep Wayne in front of him, he is a danger to take one to the end zone any play.
Prediction
The Jags have yet to win a game in San Marcos, Texas. They have come close a couple of times. This is a great time to end that shutout.
They also haven’t won back-to-back road games since 2015 (San Diego State & Troy).
Last year the Jags put up season-high numbers in first downs, rushing attempts, total plays and time of possession. The offense didn’t turn the ball over a single time. The defense allowed their fewest rushing yards and fewest average gain per play on the season. Basically it was the best game, statistically, the Jags played last season.
So far this season, Texas State has one of the nations worst pass rushes with only three sacks thus far. The Jags offensive line have been pretty good protecting Bentley with most the sacks allowed have been coverage sacks. Also the Jags average over 9 yards per pass attempt (24th in the nation) while the Bobcats allow 7.4 yards per pass (79th in nation).
There’s just a lot that stacks up in the Jags favor, but are those numbers actually reflective of the Bobcats considering the injuries and Covid protocols?
South Alabama enters as a 3.5 point favorite in most odds sites.
As I highlighted during the Jags bye week, this should be one more winnable games on the Jags remaining schedule. It would also get them 2/3rds of the way to bowl eligibility as well.
I think the sting of a loss will motivate the players and coaches. They will use it as a bit of a get-right game. The Jags win and they will cover.
Go Jags!