Preview: South Alabama Hosts Louisiana For A ‘White Out’ In Sun Belt Opener
Kickoff: Saturday October 2, 7 pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPN+
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5 fm, 96.1 fm The Rocket, iHeartRadio App
South Alabama will host Louisiana-Lafayette in their Sun Belt Conference opener on Saturday. This is a huge game for the Jags, probably the biggest game since moving on campus to Hancock Whitney Stadium.
The Ragin’ Cajuns (4-1) have earned three consecutive Sun Belt West Division titles in three seasons under head coach Billy Napier, including back-to-back 10-win seasons. This is the type of consistency that head coach Kane Wommack wants his team to achieve.
Napier is 31-12 as a head coach and 20-5 in conference play, all at Louisiana-Lafayette. Previously he spent time as recruiting coordinator, tight ends coach, and quarterbacks coach during his stint at Clemson. During his stops at Alabama he was an offensive analyst and later a wide receivers coach.
The Cajuns have won the last five match-ups in the series. The last time the Jags prevailed was a seven point victory in 2015. However six of the last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, the lone exception was last years 38-10 loss in Lafayette.
Last season the Jags were held to a season-low passing total while allowing the most rushing yards on the season. The Cajuns did it with big plays too, they have double-digit number of 20-plus yard plays on the Jags.
South Alabama
The Jags (3-0) have their best start ever in FBS program history under first-year head coach Kane Wommack. After a 31-7 win over Southern Miss, the Jags had two closer contests against Bowling Green (22-19) and Alcorn State (28-21).
After a bye week to correct some things exposed early in the season, the Jag will return to action on Saturday when they open conference play against the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Defense
The key to the Jags success so far this season has been their excellent play on defense.
The Jags are ranked 1st in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, 1st in red zone defense, 3rd in rushing yards allowed, 3rd in first down defense, tied for 12th in sacks, 18th in scoring defense, 24th in total defense, tied for 30th in turnovers gained, 79th in team tackles for loss and 81st in passing yards allowed.
The defense is allowing an average of 15.7 points per game to their opponents and only 55.3 rushing yards per game. Opponents are passing for 235.3 yards per game on average.
The defensive secondary has been hit with a number of explosive passing plays in the last two games.
Offense
The Jaguar offense has not been as consistent as the defense. They tend to start games slow but eventually find their way. But they also have periods in the game where they have trouble moving the ball.
The Jags are 97th in the nation in total offense and rushing yards per game, and 3rd down conversion percentage. They are a paltry 126th in 1st down offense, 121st in fumbles lost on the season, and 108th in tackles for loss allowed. But they are tied for 43rd in red zone offense and 48th in time of possession.
While those numbers look pretty grim, the offense is averaging 27 points per game this season, 355 yards of total offense per game, and 5.1 yards per play.
The lack of consistency is what really hampers the offense.
Hopefully the break has allowed the offensive line to get healthy once again. With a healthy offensive line and some work with the running backs urgency to hit the holes, the Jags rushing game will improve. If they can get the running game established earlier in games it will really open up the offensive playbook a lot.
However it looks like they may have to do it without running back Kareem Walker as he has been nursing an injury since last week.
Louisiana
Louisiana (4-1) opened the season with a power 5 loss to Texas but have won three straight, including their conference opener at Georgia Southern last Saturday.
Offense
The Cajuns offense is averaging 423 total yards per game. The throw for an average of 271.7 yards per game and rush for another 151.3 yards per game. They are also averaging 30.5 points per game.
In Cajun fashion, they have not just one running back but three who rotate playing time. Chris Smith just barely edges out Montrell Johnson in rushing attempts (43 to 41) and yards (191, 183). Johnson has four touchdowns though to Smith’s two.
Emani Baily has 168 rushing yards on just 27 carries too.
Dontae Fleming leads the receiving corps with 11 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. Kyren Lacy has 10 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. Jalen Williams has nine catches for 109 yards.
Levi Lewis is a dual threat quarterback. He is 85-for-130 for 1,047 yards and seven touchdowns this season with only one interception. He’s gained 125 yards on the ground but lost 64 yards in negative plays and sacks so he only has 61 yards rushing officially.
However it was announced three offensive linemen are out for the season. Two of them are listed on the two-deep, however one is a starter. Additionally they have lost their starting kicker for the season as well.
Defense
The Cajuns needed a late defensive stop to hold on to the win over Georgia Southern last week. The eagles got within one score with 1:34 left after a 76 yard touchdown run.
They also forced two fumbles and an interception in the game.
Louisiana-Lafayette allows an average 413.3 yards of total offense per game. Opponents throw for 235.3 yards per game and rush for 178 yards per game. Georgia Southern ran for 278 yards on the Cajuns despite the loss.
Opponents are converting almost 50% of their 3rd down attempts.
Keys to the Game
Start Fast Offensively
The Jags offense tends to start games a bit slow. After a couple of possessions though, they tend to hit their groove.
They may not be able to get away with that against the Cajuns.
Avoid lots of three-and-outs
The Cajuns defense allows quite a bit of yards but they tend to get stops when they need to. The offense needs to convert some first downs on each possession to give the defense time to rest and to help win the field position game.
Late in the game against Alcorn State, the Jags offense had some three-and-out situations and the Jags defense were visibly getting tired. But they still came up big when needed, including a game-clinching interception in the end zone.
Louisiana is a stronger opponent and allowing the defense to get some rest between possessions will help to keep them fresh.
Turnovers
The Jaguar defense has been spectacular in forcing seven turnovers on the season. However the offense has fumbled the ball away five times. Then there was that pick-six at Bowling Green. So the team is only +1 in turnover margin.
Hopefully the defense can continue their turnover havoc. On the other hand, the offense needs to slow their roll.
In a study over a four year period from 2009-2012, a team that averaged a turnover margin of +1 per game could expect about nine wins per season with all other things being equal.
Jag Fans
This may be the first time the crowd truly makes a huge difference in a game.
Yes fans and crowds make differences in games to a point but this one is different. This one could be even more impactful.
This is South Alabama’s first attempt at a “white out” in their new on-campus home.
Penn State has used the “white out” to their advantage a number of times. This could be the beginning of a similar tradition for South Alabama.
So wear WHITE, be LOUD, and create a great ENVIRONMENT!
Prediction
I think this has been one of the games that’s been circled on the calendar for a few weeks now. This is a bit of a measuring stick game too. Where does the team stack up against the back-to-back-to-back Sun Belt Conference West Division Champions.
The Jags have had an extra week to prep for this game. The administration and athletic department are going all out with a “white out” theme. This game clearly means a little more.
The Cajuns opened at a 10.5 point favorite in the game and it has since gone up to 12.5 points.
I think the Jags cover and also I think they win this game outright.
Go Jags!