Preview: Troy At South Alabama (Battle for the Belt)
Kickoff: Saturday December 5, 1:00 pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPN3
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5FM, 96.1 The Rocket, iHeartRadio
The Battle for the Belt.
After having their annual match up, that was scheduled for October 3 postponed due to Covid, the Jaguars (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt Conference) will finally host the Trojans (4-5, 2-3 SBC) at 1pm on Saturday, December 5.
This Rivalry Game will be played late in the season rather near the beginning of their conference schedules for the first time in this series. This is what many South Alabama fans have wanted for some time. They have felt that, like fellow in state rivals Alabama and Auburn, that South Alabama and Troy should be played at the end of the season. Thanks to Covid, their wish has finally come true.
Well, mostly.
The game was first rescheduled to be December 12 and would have been the ending of the season for both schools. However, again thanks to Covid, Troy will take on Coastal Carolina on December 12 and thus the Battle for the Belt needed a new date, and December 5 was it.
The Jags enter the game after breaking their four game losing streak and getting their first win ever in Jonesboro, Arkansas against the Arkansas State Red Wolves last Saturday. The Jags had to fight down to the last second for the win. They clinched it on a quarterback sack as time expired with the ball inside their own 10 yard line.
The Trojans travel to Mobile in the midst of a three game losing streak. Last Saturday the Trojans were dominated by Appalachian State 47-10 in Boone, North Carolina. They allowed 275 yards rushing and were held to just 106 yards rushing themselves in the loss.
But nothing can get a pair of football rivals up for a game like a rivalry game.
Troy Offense
Troy head coach Chip Lindsey is still searching for his guy at quarterback. Quarterback Gunnar Watson is 152-of-223 passing for 1,584 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. Last week against App State he went 13-of-20 for 125 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Jacob Free, a 6’5″ 217 pound junior is 79-of-134 for 957 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Free last saw action against Georgia Southern on November 7th when he struggled going 21-of-47 with two interceptions. He was unable to play last week due to an illness.
Lindsey was quoted during fall camp saying that their quarterback will be the one who, “can lead the team up and down the field and score.” So its possible that the Trojan may utilize him on Saturday.
On the season Troy is averaging 282.3 yards passing, 102.6 yards rushing, and 384.9 total yards of offense per game. They are scoring an average of 26 points per game, which is a bit un-Troy like.
The leading Trojan runner, true freshman Kimani Vidal, has missed the last two games. Despite that he had 393 yards on 67 attempts for the season with three touchdowns. BJ Smith is behind him with 277 yards on 73 attempts with three touchdowns.
Kaylon Geiger is the favorite receiver with 48 catches and 598 yards on the season with two touchdowns. Reggie Todd and Khalil McClain both have 29 catches and five touchdowns each, they have 380 and 350 yards receiving respectively.
Despite the numbers, Troy can still put points on the board. Especially when you’re talking about a rivalry game with an in-state opponent.
Troy Defense
Overall the Troy defense is allowing 233.7 yards passing, 177.8 yards rushing, 411.4 total yards of offense, and 26.8 points per game.
As previously mentioned, the Trojans allowed 275 yards rushing last week. So defensively they are having trouble stopping the run and the Jags have had problems running the ball in their in games they lost.
Their third down numbers look pretty good too. Defensively opponents are only converting 36% of their 3rd down attempts (48-of-132). The Jaguar offense is converting 40% of their 3rd down attempts (61-of-152) on the season.
The defense is led by linebacker Carlton Martial who has 78 total stops, 40 of them solo, with 7.5 tackles for loss, three pass breakups, and two quarterback hurries. Next in line behind him statistically is fellow linebacker Jayden McDonald, who has 59 total stops, 36 solo, four tackles for loss, a pass breakup and two quarterback hurries himself.
On the season, the Trojans have 15 sacks defensively.
Keys to the Game
Offensive Line
Last week the Jaguar offensive line held their own against an Arkansas State defense that, lets face it, is pretty terrible.
The Jaguar offense only netted 99 yards on the ground with Carlos Davis leading the way with 31 yards on 12 carries. So I wouldn’t go out and say it was a great performance by the offensive line, but it was an improvement for sure.
They were able to protect the quarterback and only allowed two sacks (25 over the last 6 games but who’s counting). That protection and the poor secondary play by the Red Wolves allowed the Jags to throw for 387 yards for the game and allowed Jalen Tolbert to set a single game record with 252 yards on 10 catches with three touchdowns.
It was good enough to earn him a helmet sticker on ESPN for his effort.
However that game is now the past and the offensive line will have to do it again this week.
Trotter should be back for the game, but will he be 100% and be mobile? Kawaan Baker seems to have suffered a partially torn MCL and does not look good to play. Brandon Crum, the most prolific pass catcher at tight end, will miss the game due to contact tracing precautions concerning Covid.
Turnovers
The Jags have been pretty good over the last couple of games concerning turnovers.
Turnovers are always big in rivalry games. There’s nothing better at shifting momentum or breathing fresh life into a team than forcing a turnover from a bitter rival.
While the Jags are still negative for the season in turnover margin, they have been +2 in turnover margin for the last two games (+3 in the loss to Georgia State). They need to keep that trend going this week and stay in the positive side of the margin.
And better yet, not giving the ball to the Trojans would be even better.
Scoring Points
The Jags found a way to put points on the board last week.
And it wasn’t field goals either!
Three of the touchdown passes went to Tolbert, the shortest of which was a 37 yard score. The only other passing touchdown went to Kawaan Baker. Tolbert scored on the ground with a designed quarterback run from 2 yards out.
With Crum out and Baker likely missing as well, that could allow Troy to focus more on Tolbert and Jalen Wayne. Could this allow the Jaguar runners to find some space to run?
Prediction
Troy opened at a 1 point favorite and the spread has grown to 4.5 points now.
As mentioned above, Crum will be out and Baker will likely be out. Trotter could have some lingering injury issues as well.
That’s just on offense.
Defensively we don’t know if Riley Cole will play, even though he has indicated that he will be ready come Saturday. But Cole has always been eager to play, but will he be cleared and able to? Christian Bell will probably miss the game as well.
The Jags have lost the last two games to the Trojans and would like nothing else than to end the season with win over their rivals as they are likely not going to get an invite to a bowl game. Plus it would be the second season in a row that the team and coaching staff took some momentum into the off-season with a season ending win.
Could this be a team getting better? Could they improve their win total by TWO games this year? A win just might save Steve Campbell his job too.
I think so! Jags not only cover, but they win outright.
Go Jags!