Preview: Georgia State At South Alabama
Kickoff: Saturday November 21, 2:30 pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5FM, 96.1 The Rocket, iHeartRadio
The struggling South Alabama Jaguars (3-5, 2-3 Sun Belt Conference) are finally returning home to host a game after a three-game road trip. Next up on the schedule are the Georgia State Panthers (3-4, 2-4 SBC).
The Panthers have also been struggling but enter the game after hard-fought 17-13 loss to Appalachian State last week in Boone, NC. The Panthers had a great opportunity to upset the Mountaineers, leading 10-3 at halftime and had only allowed 89 yards. App State’s starting quarterback was injured late in the game, but their backup led the Mountaineers on a game-winning drive.
On the other hand, the Jags were soundly defeated by Louisiana-Lafayette 38-10 last week. Carlos Davis was limited to six carries for 18 yards. The offense was held to only 145 yards passing with Desmond Trotter being sacked three times with an interception.
The final three games of the season will determine the how we will look back on this odd year that is 2020. Three of the first five games came against the worst teams on the Jaguars schedule (Southern Miss, Texas State, ULM) which are a combined 3-21 and the Jags won all three of those games.
The last three games, all on the road, have been against three of the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference and all have been loses unfortunately.
Head coach Steve Campbell and his staff are searching for ways to put points on the board. The offense has regressed and has only scored an anemic 33 points in the last three games combined. Desmond Trotter has seen almost all of the snaps lately after he and JuCo transfer Chance Lovertich were essentially playing in a rotating time shares early in the season.
However, reports this week have seemingly been confirmed with the announcement that Lovertich would not be “out indefinitely” and that it was not related to Covid-19 in an al.com report. Rumors were circulating that he had ‘opted out’ of the remainder of the season, but has not officially left the program nor has entered his name into the transfer portal. However article noted that Lovertich “has not been present at practice the last two days,” when the report was published on Wednesday. Campbell was also quoted by al.com as saying “I doubt we will see him again this year,” after the Jaguars practice on Wednesday.
His status and future with the team continues to be unclear.
Red shirt sophomore wide receiver Mo Edwards Jr entered the transfer portal, he had made appearances in four of the Jags first five games this season but did not record any pass catches.
Georgia State Offense
The Panthers are a run-first team. They average 205.1 yards rushing, 191.4 yards passing, and 396.6 total yards per game this season while scoring an average of 33.3 points per game.
Destin Coates leads the Panthers on the ground with 581 yards on 126 carries with five touchdowns. Tucker Gregg has 347 yards on 51 carries with three touchdowns. Quarterback Cornelius Brown IV has rushed for 231 yards on 72 carries with five touchdowns.
Speaking of quarterback, Brown has gone 115 of 207 for 1,340 yards, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He does a good job of spreading the ball around. His leading receiver is Sam Pinckney with 29 catches for 451 yards and six touchdowns. Next in line is Cornelius McCoy with 19 catches for 221 yards and two touchdowns. Roger Carter has 15 catches for 179 yards and four touchdowns.
The Jaguars have given up big yardage lately to the run. But it depends on which Georgia State team shows up. The Panther offense didn’t look like they came out of the locker room against Coastal Carolina when they lost 51-0 and only had 106 yards of total offense.
Georgia State Defense
Again, it depends on which team shows up on game day. They were sliced and diced by Coastal Carolina’s offense, but turned around and held Appalachian State to just 13 points and 310 yards of offense.
On the season they are allowing 122 yards rushing, 324.4 yards passing, and 446.4 total yards per game. They also allow an average of 36.9 points per game.
Their leading tackler Antavious Lane has 50 total tackles, 38 of them solo, from the safety position. He adds three interceptions, six pass breakups and a forced fumble. Right on his heels is Blake Carroll with 49 total tackles, 36 solo, from the inside linebacker position with four pass breakups, three quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
If USA is going to have a chance to get their offense back in gear and put some points on the board, Georiga State seems to be the team to do it against on paper.
Keys to the Game
Offense
Granted, this one is very broad. But when your offense has played this poorly over the last three or four games, improvement in just one key area on the offensive side of the ball is not going to make much of a difference.
Starting with the offensive line, they will be without Jacob Shoemaker and Connor Estes for the second-consecutive game due to covid and contact tracing. Desmond Trotter has been sacked 13 times in the last three games, the vertical passing game has been non-existent, and running game has been inconsistent. Hopefully the players and staff have worked on figuring out a scheme to help the offensive line play more effective this week.
The offense has not been converting 3rd downs attempts well. They have had trouble getting into the end zone. Play calling has been predictable.
All in all, the offense has to do something. It may take another pick-six by the defense to get the offense going. But at some point they have to figure something out on their own.
Red zone touchdowns
As mentioned before, the Jags offense has been in the red zone a number of times recently but only came away with field goals when they even got points. Over the last two games they have scored one touchdown in six red zone attempts and they’ve added three field goals in that same stretch.
One of those times they came away empty handed, the line of scrimmage was around the 1 yard line and Kawaan Baker lined up in the wild cat and five yards deep, but was stopped short of the goal line in an obvious play call.
They need to convert more of those red zone trips into touchdowns if they really want to contend in games and have a chance to win.
Stay healthy
Thankfully Covid has not caused a another cancellation or postponement in the program, however losing two starting offensive linemen for two games is not good.
Add in that Lovertich will not be available for this game and probably the remainder of the season. That leaves true freshman Eli Gainey as the second string quarterback if anything happens to Trotter.
Prediction
Georgia State is a 3 point favorite over the Jags at Hancock Whitney Stadium. The Panthers played well their last two games with a win over ULM and a near upset of App State. The Jags have lost their last three since their win over ULM themselves.
With the offensive line woes, missing players and general down trend in the team I think Georgia State will win outright. Will the Jags cover the 3 point spread? I think so, simply by being a home and not traveling.
Go Jags!