Preview: South Alabama At Georgia Southern
Kickoff: Thursday, October 29, 6:30pm
Venue: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, Georgia
TV: ESPN
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5FM, 96.1 The Rocket, iHeartRadio
South Alabama (3-2, 2-0 SBC) faces Georgia Southern (3-2, 1-2 SBC) on a short week for both schools. The Jags won their second-consecutive game to continue to stay unbeaten through two conference games for the first time in school history. Additionally the Jags record is over .500 for the first time since 2016.
The Jaguar offense has benefitted having Desmond Trotter back and healthy. Against ULM, Trotter went 8-of-12 for 184 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his touchdowns went to Kawaan Baker. Though Chance Lovertich has seen action in every game, but it seems that with each game, Trotter is cementing his position as the leading quarterback.
While the two conference wins are worthy of celebration, lets not get ahead of ourselves too much just yet.
The Jags three wins against Southern Miss, Texas State and UL-Monroe are a combined 2-16 this season. The two conference win have come against two teams with a combined record of 1-12. Also the Jags were soundly defeated by one of the better CUSA teams in UAB.
Next up is Georgia Southern. A team the Jags have yet to notch a win against in six attempts. The Eagles were out-rushed for the first time since November 2019 when undefeated Coastal Carolina (5-0, 3-0 SBC) gave them a 28-14 loss in Conway, South Carolina.
In the Eagles three wins, they average nearly 250 yards rushing per game. In the Jags two losses, they have given up an average nearing 200 yards rushing per game.
GSU Offense
Georgia Southern keeps doing what they do best: run the ball. They rank second in the Sun Belt and 13th nationally in both rushing offense (248.8 yards per game) and yards per carry (5.5).
The offense starts with Shai Wertz, who is an explosive runner. He’s totalled 333 yards on 60 attempts with two touchdowns on the season. That’s an average of 5.6 yards per attempt.
He was held to only 36 yards on 16 carries against Coastal Carolina last time out. But he was also banked up and was sidelined for a bit before returning to the game. He was pressed into a season-high 20 passing attempts, but only completing seven of them for 94 yards with two interceptions. But on the season Werts is 40-of-76 for 558 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions.
J.D. King leads the the rushing attack with 87 carries and 490 total yards with four touchdowns while averaging 98 rushing yard per game. Wesley Kennedy III has scored three touchdowns on just 31 carries with 206 yards and an average of 6.7 yards per carry.
GSU Defense
The Eagles defense ranks 3rd in the sun belt and 32nd in the country by allowing 361.2 yards per game. Those numbers are a bit skewed by their shutout performance against UMass where they allowed a mere 191 total yards of offense.
Defensively they are stronger against the run than the pass.
GSU is good at keeping the opposition behind schedule on downs and distance, that all starts with strong play on first down. Which is why opponents are routinely facing 3rd and long against this defense.
Keys to the Game
Rushing Defense
The Jags have been pretty good against the run this season, allowing an average of 134 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry.
That will be tested this week.
The Jags first down defense has allowed 6.4 yards per play. They will have to do better in order to keep the Eagles off schedule. So far in 6 games against them, the Jags have not found the recipe to beat them. Though last season they had their best opportunity when the fell 20-17 in 2OT.
Scoring on Possessions
The Eagles prolific rushing offense lends itself well to dominating the time of possession, especially when they are finding success.
That leads to fewer possessions for opponents, which equates to fewer scoring opportunities.
The Jags will need to cash in those possessions with points as often as possible.
The Jags could very well find themselves on the receiving end of their fourth quarter possession against ULM. Last week the Jags had a 16 play possession that drained over 10 minutes off the clock.
Those quick strike, 80-yard touchdown passes to Kawaan Baker or Jalen Tolbert are great, but against a team like the Eagles, that could disadvantage their defensive teammates.
Offensively the Jags may need to grind out some longer possessions in order to give their defense a chance to get some rest. This means getting their running game going against the usually stiff GSU rush defense. They’ll have to do it without the help of offensive lineman Jacob Shoemaker who left the Jags game against ULM due to a knee injury.
Playing Well on the Road
The Jags broke their road losing streak when they opened the season with a win over Southern Miss, but USM. However, as mentioned earlier, the Jags three wins have been against opponents with a combined record of 2-16. One of those wins was recorded by USM.
This will be the Jags first significant road test of the season. Their first road game since September 3rd actually, as the Jags have played four-consecutive home games since that season opener. That included a two-week break when the Jags game against Troy had to be rescheduled due to positive Covid tests among the South Alabama student-athletes.
They cannot take Georgia Southern lightly. This may not look like the normal Georgia Southern squad that they have seen over the previous six meetings, but their two losses have come to teams ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of their meeting.
Prediction
Georgia Southern is a 5.5 point favorite at home. Both teams have a short week with both played on Saturday.
UAB used deep throws to open up their running game against the USA defense. Georgia Southern will utilize their option game to test the discipline of the Jaguar defense. With only three days of preparation, the Jags may have a hard time against that Eagle running game.
I think Georgia Southern will win outright, and I think they squeek out a cover as well.
Go Jags